Fig. 5: Sources of uncertainty in ToE for the Walker circulation change.
From: Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening
a Likely range of time of emergence (ToE) determined by forced signal (x-axis) and internal variability (y-axis) based on sea-level pressure gradient (dSLP) in CMIP6 models under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. b Intermodel relationship between ToE and slow response of the Walker circulation (See Methods) in the abrupt4×CO2 experiment based on the dSLP index. The intermodel correlation coefficient and p-value are shown in the upper-left corner of the panels, with p < 0.01 denoting a significant correlation. c–f are the same as (a–b) but for the 500 hPa vertical velocity gradient (dW500) and the maximum absolute value in the 200-hPa velocity potential over the western tropical Pacific (VPmax), respectively. Gray shading in (b), (d) and (f) indicates models without ToE.
