Fig. 2: D29 antibody marker level by COVID-19 outcome status (moderate COVID-19 case, severe-critical COVID-19 case, or non-case).

a 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb-ID50) titer, (b) anti-Spike IgG concentration, and (c) anti-RBD IgG concentration. Data points are from baseline SARS-CoV-2 seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients. Violin plots contain interior box plots with upper and lower horizontal edges the 25th and 75th percentiles of antibody level and middle line the 50th percentile, and vertical bars the distance from the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level and the minimum (or maximum) antibody level within the 25th (or 75th) percentile of antibody level minus (or plus) 1.5 times the interquartile range. Each side shows a rotated probability density (estimated by a kernel density estimator with a default Gaussian kernel) of the data. Positive response frequencies (Freq.) computed with inverse probability of sampling weighting. Positive response definitions: Spike IgG, IgG>10.8424 BAU/ml; RBD IgG, IgG>14.0858 BAU/ml. ULoQ: Spike IgG, 238.1165 BAU/ml; RBD IgG, 172.5755 BAU/ml. Positive response for nAb-ID50: D1 nAb-ID50 titer <LLOQ (LLOQ = 4.8975 IU50/ml) with detectable D29 nAb-ID50 ( ≥ LLOQ), or D1 nAb-ID50 > LLOQ with at least a fourfold increase in D29 nAb-ID50. ULoQ: ID50, 844.7208 IU50/ml. Moderate cases are baseline SARS-CoV-2 seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients with the moderate COVID-19 endpoint (moderate COVID-19 with onset both ≥ 7 days post D29 and ≥28 days post-vaccination) up to 181 days post-D29 but not past data cut (July 9, 2021). Severe-critical cases are baseline SARS-CoV-2 seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients with the severe-critical COVID-19 endpoint (severe-critical COVID-19 with onset both ≥ 7 days post-D29 and ≥28 days post-vaccination) up to 170 days post-D29 but not past data cut (July 9, 2021). Non-cases are baseline seronegative per-protocol vaccine recipients sampled into the immunogenicity subcohort with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection up to the end of the correlates study period, which is up to 181 days post-D29 but not past data cut (July 9, 2021). BAU binding antibody units, IU international units, LLoQ lower limit of quantitation, Pos.Cut positivity cut-off, ULoQ upper limit of quantitation. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.