Fig. 1: Climate-Water-Energy data and modeling framework.
This schematic describes the study’s integrated modeling methodology. In step (a), downscaled climate projections from 15 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions are used to construct 15 climate scenarios. In step (b), temperature and precipitation data from the 15 climate scenarios are inputs into the Western U.S. Water Systems Model (WWSM), which simulates the monthly water supply available, the allocation of water to demands and hydropower generation, and the electricity demand related to water. In step (c), the changes in air-conditioning and heating electricity demand are calculated using cooling and heating sensitivities from59 and temperature data from the 15 climate scenarios. The changes in hydropower generation and water-related electricity demand from step (b), and the changes in air-conditioning and heating electricity demand from step (c) under the climate scenarios relative to a Baseline Scenario with historical climate adjust the hydropower and electricity demand inputs of the Solar, Wind, Transmission, Conventional and Hydroelectric generation model (SWITCH). In step (d), SWITCH optimizes the investment and operations of generation and transmission for each of the 15 climate scenarios and the Baseline Scenario. Each SWITCH model run produces the optimal portfolio, dispatch, and cost of generation and transmission by load zone and investment period.
