Fig. 2: Decomposition of climate change impacts on electricity supply and demand. | Nature Communications

Fig. 2: Decomposition of climate change impacts on electricity supply and demand.

From: Climate change and its influence on water systems increases the cost of electricity system decarbonization

Fig. 2

a Decomposition of 2050 changes in electricity supply and demand under climate scenarios compared to Baseline Scenario. The difference in 2050 total Western Interconnection demand under each climate scenario relative to under the Baseline Scenario is disaggregated by changes in load for cooling and heating and for water (such as groundwater pumping, conveyance, and water heating). The scenarios are ranked from lowest to highest total absolute energy imbalance, calculated by subtracting changes in hydropower generation from changes in load for cooling, heating, and water. Each climate scenario is named after the Global Circulation Model (GCM) from which the climate projection originates. b Distribution of monthly change in hydropower and electricity demand across climate scenarios in 2050 compared to Baseline Scenario. Each box plot shows the distribution of changes in electricity demand (top panel) and changes in hydropower (bottom panel) across the climate scenarios for each month in 2050. Lines represent the median, points are outliers, and whiskers show the first and third quartiles. c Changes in load and hydropower vs. 2050 temperature. d Change in load and hydropower vs. 2050 precipitation. Each point in plots (c) and (d) is the annual change in cooling/heating loads, water-related loads, or hydropower generation in 2050 for the climate scenario relative to the Baseline Scenario plotted with annual average changes in temperature and total annual changes in precipitation, relative to the 1980–2010 average climate. Data is aggregated by region as follows: Mountain (MT, including Colorado, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah); Pacific Northwest (PacNW, including Oregon and Washington); and the Southwest (SW, including California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico). The R2 for each figure demonstrates the goodness-of-fit. Western Interconnection regions in Canada and Mexico are omitted for visual clarity. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.

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