Fig. 2: MRI experiment results.
A Example of trial-by-trial variation in the reaction time and model variables. B MSIT Task stimuli. C Comparison of reaction times between trials with predicted lower and higher conflict expectations per sequence (n = 26 participants, Wilcoxon test, two-sided, p = 2.9e-8). Boxplots display the extreme values, interquartile range, and median, and each point representing the mean for an individual subject. D Posterior distribution of model parameters (n = 26 participants, Bayesian hypothesis test using pMCMC, two-sided, p < 0.001). Black dots represent the mean of the distribution, and black lines represent the 95% high-density intervals. The colored areas represent the complete posterior distribution. E Brain activity is associated with conflict expectation in the lateral prefrontal cortex (yellow) and conflict stimulus processing (blue). Lowercase letters a and b indicate the target sites for TMS experiments. The right panel shows the comparative results for the Conflict Expectancy regressor for the discovery sample (red) and the replication sample (green), highlighting the intersection of both results (yellow). The blue lines indicate the site of TMS stimulation in the SFG. * indicates p < 0.05, **p < 0.01,***p < 0.001. CNF conflict trial, Ex conflict expectation, MSIT multiple source interference task, pEr error in the prior trial, p(cnf) predicted probability of conflict, RT reaction time, SFG superior frontal gyrus, TMS transcranial magnetic stimulation. See Supplementary Tables 3 and 4. Source data are provided as a SourceData file.
