Fig. 3: AMOC anomalies at 26.5°N vs air-sea heat flux anomalies north of 26.5°N across climate models from CMIP6 at various timescales.
From: Atlantic overturning inferred from air-sea heat fluxes indicates no decline since the 1960s
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) anomalies are calculated at 26.5°N for 24 climate models individually with respect to a linear trend over the time period in the pre-industrial AMOC simulations of each model that corresponds to the time period in the historical simulations. The North Atlantic air-sea flux anomalies north of 26.5°N and south of the Arctic (see orange area in Fig. 4 and methods for a detailed definition of the region) are calculated with respect to linear trend over the time period in the pre-industrial AMOC simulations of each model that corresponds to the time period in the historical simulations. Blue dots indicate averages of the respective anomalies from a 1850 to 2016, and from 2017 to 2100 under b SSP1-2.6 and c SSP5-8.5. Orange dots indicate decadal averages of the anomalies from a the 1850s to the 2010s, and from b, c the 2020s to the 2090s. Green dots show annual averaged anomalies from a 1850 to 2016, and b, c from 2017 to 2100. Positive heat flux anomalies indicate an increased heat flux from the atmosphere into the ocean.
