Fig. 1: Daily maximum temperature and its changes.

a Present day (1990–2014) summer mean (annual mean for 20S to 20N) daily maximum temperature TX and b its projected changes (2076–2100 vs. 1990–2014) under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Corresponding present day values and changes for the 2-year (c, d) and 200-year (e, f) return levels of TX. Results are shown for MPI-ESM1-2-LR. The corresonding results for the other two SMILES can be found in the supplementary material, Figs. S1 and S2. Changes in hatched regions are small compared to interannual variability (see Methods for detail).