Fig. 3: The test of Earth system models in reproducing the observed relationship between the dates of leaf senescence (DFS) and precipitation frequency.

Panel (A) shows the overall proportions of significant positive and negative correlations. Panel (B) represents the sensitivity of DFS to precipitation frequency changes. Panel (C) is the comparison on the signs of correlation for each pixel. Four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) were included for CMIP6 models, including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, respectively. The solid symbols represent mean values and error bars indicate standard derivations. The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of pixels in the observation and each model. -- and ++ represent consistent negative and positive observations. Significance was set with p < 0.05 (two-sided t test). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.