Table 2 A summary of the current practices for each of the layers of adaptation, gaps, and advances related to the approaches described in the “Approaches for analysing unprecedented weather” section, including the discussed case studies
Adaptation layer | Current practice | Gap | Advances | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Reactive | Weather prediction | Limited trust in unprecedented weather forecasts | Putting forecasts of unprecedented weather in perspective | October 2021 Nepal Floods |
Scenario planning | Often designed based on experience with past events | Developing scenarios of unprecedented weather | - | |
Incremental | Stress testing infrastructure | May under-appreciate the risk of unprecedented weather | Stress-test systems to unprecedented events | UK water security |
Disruption of food security in the Horn of Africa | ||||
Transformative | Climate-Resilient Development | Not directly supported by advances in physical climate science | Switches focus from the impacts and hazards towards the underlying development context and drivers of vulnerability | 2017 Hurricanes Irma and Maria |
