Fig. 4: Global negative emissions and land-use change.
From: Hedging our bet on forest permanence for the economic viability of climate targets
a Annual negative emissions in billion tonnes by Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) (brown), BioEnergy Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) (yellow), and A/R (green) in 2030, 2050, and 2100. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 1.5 °C scenario (SSP2-1.5 °C) is shown next to the two forest carbon loss response scenarios. Yearly growth rates in technical Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) capabilities (BECCS and DACCS) in million tonnes are added in pink. Numbers depict the average growth rate necessary between shown points in time. In the case of 2030, technical CDR growth rates are shown for the values reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2022 (45 MtCO2 per yr installed CCUS capacity33) and the model output of 2030. b Area difference of main land-use types to their respective 2020 extent in million hectares. The two disturbance response scenarios are shown to the right of the SSP2-1.5 °C scenario without forest disturbances. Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R) actions are split into efforts planned under the Nationally Determined Contributions (Aff NDC) and solely price-driven forest establishment (Aff CO2-Price). The total mitigation land area (both A/R and bioenergy) in 2100 is highlighted in black.
