Fig. 2: Box plots showing the distribution of PENSIEVE-AI’s probability scores in the Test sample (n = 658).

a Main results based on all the Test sample (n = 658). The box plot’s center line, box limits, and whiskers denote the median, lower and upper quartiles, and 1.5× interquartile range, respectively. The red dots represent the individual datapoints. The two horizontal dashed lines represent the two optimal cutoffs for PENSIEVE-AI. The lower cutoff has high sensitivity and negative predictive value (>85% each), and is used to rule out mild cognitive impairment and dementia (MCI/dementia) when probability scores fall below this threshold (as shown by the white region). The upper cutoff has high specificity and positive predictive value (>85% each), and identifies individuals likely to have MCI/dementia (when probability scores exceed this threshold, as shown by the dark grey region). The light grey region (demarcated by the lower and upper cutoffs) represents the intermediate range, identifying individuals who may be at higher risk and may require further monitoring or assessment. b Results based on Sensitivity analysis 1, whereby the prevalence of MCI/dementia was readjusted to 20% in the Test sample, based on prior meta-analytic findings that community prevalence was ~15% for MCI and ~5% for dementia. In the Test sample, a subset of participants with MCI and dementia were randomly selected in the Test sample to readjust the prevalence in the dataset (see Methods section for further details). The resulting dataset comprised 256 participants with normal cognition (80%), 48 participants with MCI (15%), and 16 participants with dementia (5%). c Results based on Sensitivity analysis 2, whereby the prevalence of MCI/dementia was readjusted to 35% in the Test sample, based on prior meta-analytic findings that community prevalence could be as high as ~25% for MCI and ~10% for dementia. In the Test sample, a subset of participants with MCI and dementia were randomly selected in the Test sample to readjust the prevalence in the dataset (see Methods section for further details). The resulting dataset comprised 104 participants with normal cognition (65%), 40 participants with MCI (25%), and 16 participants with dementia (10%). Source data are provided as a Source Data file.