Fig. 2: Genetic differentiation and gene flow among lesser kestrel populations.

a Admixture component profiles for each sampling locality at K = 2 (best K value based on cross-validation; Supplementary Fig. 11) based on double-digest Restriction-Site Associated DNA (ddRAD) data, showing the Western (orange) and Eastern evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) (blue). Supplementary Table 1 shows acronyms and details of sample size for each sampling locality. b Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based on 27,853 unlinked single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) highlighting the two ESUs (orange: Western ESU; blue: Eastern ESU) and the four fine-scale genetic clusters identified by fineRADStructure (Supplementary Fig. 6; coloured ellipses: Iberian peninsula in red, Italian and Balkan peninsulas - including Turkey - in yellow, Israel in green, Asia in blue). c EEMS-predicted barriers to gene flow (orange) showing a main barrier between the Western and Eastern ESUs. Pie charts show the frequencies of the three major mitochondrial haplogroups for each sampling locality (n = 89 individuals). For each of the fine-scale genetic clusters (coloured boxes; colours defined in b), the arrows show the predicted fraction of immigrating individuals per generation (proportional to the size of the arrow; numbers shown close to each arrow) from other clusters (prediction based on BayesAss3-SNPs analysis). d Maximum-likelihood population tree inferred in Treemix using Falco tinnunculus (TIN) as an outgroup. e Residuals of the observed versus predicted squared allele frequency difference inferred in Treemix, expressed as the standard error of the deviation. Residuals above zero represent populations that share more genetic variation than predicted by the best-fit tree, potentially due to gene flow or shared ancestral genetic variation. Negative residuals represent populations that share less genetic variation than predicted by the best-fit tree. Data underlying all components of Fig. 2 are provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14988067. Background maps were obtained from the rnaturalearth v.0.3.2 R package. Lines delimiting countries are shown to facilitate map interpretation and do not necessarily represent accepted national boundaries.