Fig. 5: Climate fluctuations, demographic history, and hindcasted breeding and non-breeding distribution ranges of lesser kestrels.
a Temperature anomaly as inferred from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C ice core107; b DIYABC best-supported scenario showing divergence and admixture times (mean and 95% confidence interval [CI] from 1000 out-of-bag testing samples using a set of broad priors drawn from uniform distributions [Supplementary Table 9]) of four fine-scale genetic clusters (Iberian peninsula, Italian and Balkan peninsulas, Israel and Asia; Fig. 2b); c effective population size (Ne) changes through time for the Western evolutionarily significant unit (ESU) estimated by MSMC2 (steps with bootstraps shown as faded steps); d Bayesian Skyline Plots (BSP) showing Ne changes through time (ribbons indicating 95% highest posterior density [HPD] intervals with lines indicating the median) obtained from mitogenome sequences; e extent of predicted breeding and f non-breeding ranges. The grey shaded area across panels represents the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). In panels d–f estimates for the Western and Eastern ESUs are shown in orange and blue, respectively. In panels e–f estimates are shown for the last 20,000 years (2,000-years steps) and dotted lines connect estimates for 130 kya (when the two ESUs had not diverged yet) to estimates for 20 kya; g Predicted breeding and non-breeding ranges for Western and Eastern ESUs at selected timepoints; the timepoints shown in panel g are highlighted with grey vertical lines in panels (a–f). Data underlying all components of Fig. 5 are provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14988067. Background maps were obtained from the rnaturalearth v.0.3.2 R package.
