Fig. 6: Forecasting lesser kestrel distributional responses to climate change. | Nature Communications

Fig. 6: Forecasting lesser kestrel distributional responses to climate change.

From: Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Fig. 6

a Predicted breeding (dark-shaded colours) and non-breeding (light-shaded colours) range in the present and in the future (2041-2070 and 2071-2100), for Western (orange) and Eastern (blue) evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), using an ‘extreme warming’ future climate (UKESM1-0-LL; SSP5-8.5). Green circles show the centroids of breeding distributions for each of the ESUs and the distance between centroids is shown above the line connecting them. Geographic isolation between the two ESUs is expected to increase in the future. b Trends from 6 kya to the future for: (top) the extent of breeding range, (middle) the extent of non-breeding range, and (bottom) migratory distance, showing divergent patterns between Western and Eastern ESUs. Migration distance is calculated as the minimum distance between the breeding distribution and the non-breeding distribution range centroids. For future time periods, estimates obtained from the ‘extreme warming’ future climate are shown as dashed lines, while those from the ‘moderate warming’ future climate (GFDL-ESM4; SSP3-7.0) are shown as solid lines. Data underlying all components of Fig. 6 are provided at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14988067. Background maps were obtained from the rnaturalearth v.0.3.2 R package.

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