Fig. 4: Lagged full-model multisystem posterior estimates predict longitudinal body organ disease number (BODN).

The lagged full-model estimates reveal heterogenous contributions of diseases into BODN. A Maximum contribution of diseases into longitudinal BODN at time 1. B Maximum contributions of diseases into longitudinal BODN at time 2. Larger posterior estimates, accompanied by narrower 95% credible intervals (CI), yield more accurate predictions. The maximum effects of most diseases increase with time. Significance is determined when the 95% CI does not include 0. Disease Abbreviations: HTN hypertension, IHD ischemic heart disease, CHF congestive heart failure, Arr arrhythmia, PAD peripheral artery disease, CKD chronic kidney disease, DM diabetes mellitus, GID gastrointestinal disease, COPD chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, Hypoth hypothyroidism, Hyperth hyperthyroidism, OA osteoarthritis, Osteop osteoporosis, Periodon periodontal disease, Dep depression, Park Parkinson’s disease, CI cognitive impairment. System abbreviations: same as for Fig. 1. For the values of mean posterior estimates and 95% CI, please see the values in Table S6C, F for full models. Sample size n = 907, Women = 451.