Fig. 1: The ambiguous effects of energy-based adaptation on global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and global mean surface temperature.

The Climate Adaptation Feedback (CAF) is the net effect of adaptation-induced energy use on global mean surface temperatures (GMST); its sign is theoretically ambiguous. Climate change generates a rightward shift across heterogeneous baseline climate distributions for (a) colder and (b) warmer locations. This leads to (c) declines in energy consumption in cold locations and (d) increases in energy consumption in hot locations. Country-specific emissions intensities of electricity and other fuels result in different impacts of changing energy consumption on CO₂ emissions in (e) cold locations and (f) hot locations. g Increases in emissions from elevated cooling demand on hot days balance against decreases in emissions from declining heating demand on cold days, making the net effect on global CO₂ emissions ambiguous. h When increased emissions from cooling outweigh decreased emissions from heating, a positive CAF increases GMST compared to a baseline rate of warming; when the opposite is true and emissions reductions from decreased heating demand outweigh increased emissions from cooling, the CAF is negative. Only with no energy-based adaptation is there no feedback on GMST.