Fig. 3: The Climate Adaptation Feedback.
From: Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation
a Solid green line and shaded green area show point estimates and 90% confidence intervals for the mean value of the Climate Adaptation Feedback (CAF) in °C for 2020-2099 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 paired with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (SSP2-RCP8.5) using our benchmark approach. The darker dashed line shows the dynamic CAF, which accounts for how additional climate change from adaptation feeds back into future adaptation (see “Methods”). The lighter dashed line shows the CAF recalculated using emissions factors that follow historical trends between 2000 and 2018, as detailed in Supplementary Note 3. b Components of the benchmark CAF in 2099 under our baseline SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario. The first bar is the full CAF (consistent with panel (a) for 2099). The second bar shows the CAF component derived from electricity consumption alone. The third bar shows the CAF component derived from only other fuels consumption. The fourth bar shows the CAF component derived using a globally constant CO2 emissions intensity, ignoring heterogeneity both across space and across fuels in emissions intensity of energy-based adaptation. c The last set of bar graphs show point estimates for the CAF in 2099 under different combinations of SSPs and RCPs.
