Fig. 2: Quantitative models of resistance evolution exhibit distinct cell population dynamics during treatment.
A–D Per panel: (Left) Schematics of different evolutionary models, highlighting key parameters that control the behaviour of resistant, sensitive, and escape phenotypes (see text and Supplementary Note 1 for full descriptions). (Middle) Total cell population size trajectories (dashed lines) and the top 20 lineage population sizes (coloured lines)/relative frequencies (shaded areas) across four experimental drug-treatment replicates (DT1-4, rows). Lineage colours are consistent between replicates per panel. Four total cell size observations per replicate (two intermediate population size timepoints (O1 & O2) and two passage size timepoints (P1 & P2)) are highlighted. (Right) Lineage diversity statistics for the 4 drug-treatment replicates at two passage timepoints (P1 & P2 - columns), including within- replicate lineage (x-axis) and between-replicate diversity (y-axis). Simulation parameters: bx—birth rate of phenotype x, dX—death rate of phenotype x, ρ—pre-existing fraction of resistance, μ—sensitive to resistant transition probability per cell division, σ —resistant to sensitive transition probability per cell division, α—resistant to escape transition probability per cell division, γ—normalised effective drug concentration, ψ—strength of the resistant phenotype, Dc— maximum strength of the drug, κ—accumulation/decay rate of the drug. Source data including the full list of parameters used for the simulations are provided as a Source Data file.
