Fig. 4: Probability of positive border testing. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Probability of positive border testing.

From: A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle

Fig. 4

We calculate the probability of an export of cattle out of each state testing positive from 20,000 stochastic model simulations. When moving cattle inter-state, up to 30 cattle will be tested for H5N1 per export. Panels show the state average per-herd probability that, should a herd export cattle, it would test positive at: A week beginning April 15th 2024, B week beginning August 19th 2024, and C week beginning December 2nd 2024.

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