Table 1 Reported outbreaks

From: A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle

US State

Up to and including the week beginning December 2nd 2024

Outbreaks reported

Simulation outbreaks reported

Probability of no outbreaks

(Observed)

Mean (95% CrI)

(Proportion of Simulations)

California

520

339 (3–809)

0.010

Colorado

64

57 (0–139)

0.077

Idaho

35

64 (0–256)

0.150

Michigan

29

136 (0–710)

0.096

Texas

26

322 (197–376)

0.000

Iowa

13

89 (0–512)

0.191

Utah

13

25 (0–133)

0.306

Minnesota

9

249 (0–1305)

0.039

New Mexico

9

86 (74–97)

0.000

South Dakota

7

19 (0–119)

0.471

Kansas

4

194 (74–279)

0.000

Oklahoma

2

70 (0–158)

0.041

Nevada

1

2 (0–17)

0.686

North Carolina

1

11 (0–113)

0.667

Ohio

1

1004 (279–1487)

0.000

Wyoming

1

5 (0–48)

0.733

Alabama

0

2 (0–25)

0.825

Arizona

0

34 (1–51)

0.023

Arkansas

0

8 (0–34)

0.476

Connecticut

0

2 (0–36)

0.870

Delaware

0

0 (0–1)

0.974

Florida

0

35 (0–78)

0.094

Georgia

0

33 (0–155)

0.282

Illinois

0

48 (0–316)

0.309

Indiana

0

119 (0–598)

0.083

Kentucky

0

69 (0–362)

0.171

Louisiana

0

8 (0–56)

0.652

Maine

0

3 (0–45)

0.879

Maryland

0

9 (0–115)

0.698

Massachusetts

0

3 (0–40)

0.843

Mississippi

0

5 (0–37)

0.716

Missouri

0

125 (0–562)

0.112

Montana

0

4 (0–48)

0.780

Nebraska

0

7 (0–80)

0.759

New Hampshire

0

1 (0–5)

0.938

New Jersey

0

1 (0–13)

0.914

New York

0

108 (0–882)

0.268

North Dakota

0

3 (0–37)

0.790

Oregon

0

9 (0–104)

0.631

Pennsylvania

0

103 (0–888)

0.205

Rhode Island

0

0 (0–0)

0.990

South Carolina

0

3 (0–33)

0.808

Tennessee

0

34 (0–199)

0.343

Vermont

0

24 (0–230)

0.516

Virginia

0

16 (0–185)

0.664

Washington

0

33 (0–193)

0.326

West Virginia

0

2 (0–22)

0.881

Wisconsin

0

454 (1–2729)

0.019

  1. For each US state we present the observed number of reported outbreaks, and the number of reported outbreaks predicted by our model. Mean and 95% CrIs are provided from 20,000 stochastic realizations. We also display the proportion of these simulations for which no outbreaks were reported in each state.