Fig. 6: Likelihood of onward transmission and duration of epidemic risk in Italy. | Nature Communications

Fig. 6: Likelihood of onward transmission and duration of epidemic risk in Italy.

From: Risk assessment and perspectives of local transmission of chikungunya and dengue in Italy, a European forerunner

Fig. 6

A Estimated likelihood of onward DENV transmission in Italy on August 1st, 2023, shown only for areas at risk of autochthonous transmission (R0 ≥ 1). Patches are displayed as proportional to population size to highlight potential epidemic risks and represent the average estimate of 500 model runs. B Same as (A) but for CHIKV. C Estimated duration of epidemic risk for DENV, defined as the number of consecutive days during which the estimated R0 exceeds the epidemic threshold of one. Estimates are shown only for areas at risk of autochthonous transmission for at least one day and represent the average estimate of 500 model runs. D Same as (C) but for CHIKV.

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