Fig. 2: PPM-based stratification of patients in the AMARANTH trial using baseline data.

A Scatter plot of β-Amyloid against MTL GM density for AMARANTH baseline data (week 1) for placebo, lanabecestat 20 mg, lanabecestat 50 mg. Red dots indicate data for Slow progressive; green dots indicate data for Rapid progressive individuals. Individuals with higher β-Amyloid and lower GM density are stratified as Rapid progressive by the PPM model. Individuals with lower β-Amyloid and higher GM density are stratified as Slow progressive by the PPM model. B PPM-derived prognostic index for AMARANTH data at baseline (week 1): Box plots showing no significant differences in the PPM-derived prognostic index between treatment groups (placebo, lanabecestat 20 mg, lanabecestat 50 mg) at baseline (sample size: Supplementary Table S2, S3). Notches in the box plots indicate the median, the solid black box represents the 25th to 75th percentile, the black horizontal lines represent the range of the data, and black circles indicate outliers. PPM-derived prognostic index below 0 indicates stable, above 1 indicates rapid progressive, and between 0 and 1 indicates slow progressive individuals. Dashed lines indicate boundaries between stable vs. slow progressive (red) and rapid progressive (green) based on a multinomial logistic regression testing the relationship of the PPM-derived prognostic index to the rate of future tau accumulation. Source data are provided as a Source Data file.