Fig. 4: Evolving coefficient estimates shift rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic.
From: Adaptive food price forecasting improves public information in times of rapid economic change
Coefficient estimates for exogenous variables in the optimal (normal) and kitchen-sink SARIMAX (faint) forecasting models for food-at-home Consumer Price Index (CPI), 2003–2024. Forecasts include food-at-home CPI data through the previous month and exogenous data from 2 months prior.
