Fig. 7: U.S. food price and macroeconomic data used in forecasting.
From: Adaptive food price forecasting improves public information in times of rapid economic change
Time series of a food-at-home Consumer Price Index (CPI), b core CPI, energy principal component analysis index (PCAI), money supply PCAI, wage PCAI, income PCAI, and wholesale food prices, and c the detrended transportation congestion index. The detrended transportation congestion and energy principal component analysis indexes January 1998–December 2023; all other series January 1990–December 2024. Note: The principal component analysis indexes here use weights estimated for the entire series, while the weights are re-estimated each month in the forecasting exercises.
