Fig. 2: Exploring the prospects for outbreak containment via spatially-targeted vaccination strategies using a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine (BPSV).
From: Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic
A Schematic illustrating the spatially targeted vaccination framework. B The effective reproduction number (Reff, top panel) and % of outbreaks controlled (bottom panel) via BPSV ring-vaccination and its dependence on R0, for a “SARS-CoV-1-Like” virus and where no additional control measures are implemented. Black indicates scenario without BPSV, coloured lines/bars indicate different assumptions around the number of hospitalisations required to trigger the spatially-targeted vaccination campaign (surveillance threshold), all assuming a 7 day VPD. For REff plot, bars indicate the average Reff across 100 stochastic simulations, and the error bars the 95% confidence interval of the mean of those simulations. C As for (B), but for a “SARS-CoV-2-like” virus. For % outbreaks controlled plot, this is the percentage of 100 stochastic simulations that are successfully controlled. D As for (B), but assuming that some infected symptomatic individuals quarantine and isolate, which reduces onward transmission by 65%. E As for (C), but with the addition of quarantine. F Sensitivity analysis exploring how the % of outbreaks contained varies with R0 (x axis) and the ratio of the vaccination campaign spatial radius to the average distance between infections, in situations without quarantine (top heatmap) and with quarantine (bottom heatmap). Orange rectangle indicates the value held constant for other sensitivity analyses. G As for F but for vaccine efficacy against infection. H As for F but for the surveillance threshold.
