Fig. 5: Dependence of BPSV impact on intrinsic vaccine properties, vaccination campaign dynamics and health system capabilities.

Sensitivity analyses exploring the sensitivity of BPSV impact to intrinsic BPSV properties and factors governing the speed, availability and coverage of the BPSV vaccination campaign. A Deaths averted by the BPSV (per 1000 population) and BPSV efficacy against severe disease. Results coloured according to NPI scenario considered (pink = minimal, orange = moderate, blue = stringent), for R0 = 2.5. Inset panels show Rt profile for each NPI scenario. Assumed virus-specific vaccine (VSV) development timeline was 250 days. B As for (A), but for BPSV efficacy against infection. C As for (A) but for BPSV immunity duration. D As for (A) but for BPSV stockpile size (and associated coverage of the target population that can be achieved). E As for A, but for the rate of vaccination during the BPSV campaign (and the associated time taken to vaccinate all eligible and willing individuals). F The delay (in days) between the first country in the world achieving 1% of its population vaccinated with COVID-19 vaccines and other countries achieving this same milestone. Individual coloured points are specific countries—data from Our World In Data. Empirical data are plotted as points, with the underlying boxplot displaying the median (central vertical line), interquartile range (box) and the 1.5× the interquartile range (extent of horizontal whiskers). G Impact of delays to BPSV access on deaths averted per 1000 population. Scenarios shown are for moderate NPIs and with continent-specific VSV access delays derived from (F).