Fig. 4: Comparison of estimated changes in vitamin D levels due to the pandemic.

The plots compare the estimated (confounder-adjusted) reductions in the vitamin D levels and deficiency rates due to the COVID-19 pandemic based on three statistical methods, namely, Cohen’s d (for descriptive analysis), standardized mean difference (SMD, for propensity score matching), and the average treatment effect (ATE, for the causal forest). The black dots represent the estimated means, with thick whiskers indicating 99% confidence intervals (CIs) and thin whiskers representing 95% CIs. Cohen’s d and SMD were standardized by multiplying with the pooled standard deviation to make them comparable with the ATE from the causal forest model. Source data are provided as a Source Data file. a Estimated change in mean vitamin D levels. N = 292,187. Points represent mean effect estimates; error bars indicate 95% and 99% confidence intervals. b Estimated change in vitamin D deficiency rate. N = 292,187. Points represent mean effect estimates; error bars indicate 95% and 99% confidence intervals.