Fig. 2: Evolution and spatial redistribution of global shipping carbon emissions resulting from Arctic Sea Route (ASR) access from 2025 to 2100 under the business-as-usual trade scenario.
From: Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions
a Projected Arctic shipping emissions with ASR access, disaggregated by vessel type (bulk, container, oil, chemical, and gas carriers); b global and hemispheric trajectories of shipping carbon emissions with ASR access over time; c net increases in global and hemispheric shipping emissions attributable to ASR access by 2100 relative to a no-ASR counterfactual; d Corridors with the largest net increases in shipping carbon emissions by 2100 attributable to ASR access (stacked by vessel type); e Spatial distribution of net changes in shipping carbon emissions across major shipping routes by 2100 attributable to ASR access; f Corridors exhibiting net decreases in shipping carbon emissions by 2100 attributable to ASR access (stacked by vessel type); g Arctic major routes with substantial net increases in shipping carbon emissions by 2100 attributable to ASR access(stacked by vessel type). Key routes and chokepoints referenced in panels (d–g) include the Arctic Northeast Passage (1), the Central Arctic Route (2), the Arctic Northwest Passage (3), the Tsugaru Strait (9), the Taiwan Strait (13), the Luzon Strait (90), the Coral Sea (northeastern Australia) (29), the Malacca Strait (37), the Suez Canal (40), the United States–United Kingdom (US–UK) corridor (43), the Oslo–Rotterdam corridor (44), the North Pacific Transoceanic corridor (95), the North Pacific corridor (96), the South Arabian Sea corridor (100), and the Indian Ocean Transoceanic corridor (146).
