Fig. 3: Temporal impacts of the opening of the Arctic Sea Route (ASR) on global shipping carbon emissions under three decarbonization strategies from 2025 to 2100.
From: Arctic Sea Route access reshapes global shipping carbon emissions
Each panel displays projected global shipping carbon emissions and associated ASR-induced emission changes under: a the IMO 2023 Strategy, b the Green Corridor Strategy, and c the Net-Zero Strategy. For each strategy, the solid green line represents global emissions without ASR access while the solid pink line shows emissions with ASR access. The orange line reflects emissions occurring specifically along ASR corridors. The red line indicates the net increase in global emissions attributable to ASR access (ΔEmissions = with ASR − without ASR). The upper and lower bounds of each shaded band represent emissions under the Optimistic Trade Scenario (OTS) and the Pessimistic Trade Scenario (PTS), respectively.
