Table 2 Internal validation with nested cross-validation and leave-one-site-out (LOSO) nested cross-validation predicting symptomatic and global outcome at T3 and T6 in multimodal models.

From: Individualized prediction of three- and six-year outcomes of psychosis in a longitudinal multicenter study: a machine learning approach

Predictor/Model (outcome)

Internal BAC

Internal Sens/Spec

Internal PPV/NPV

Internal AUC

LOSO BAC

LOSO Sens/spec

LOSO PPV/NPV

LOSO AUC

PANSS, ill, demo, CANSAS (symptomatic outcome T3)

62.2 (1.7)

77.9/42.6

68.9/54.1

0.60

61.3

59.7/62.9

73.1/47.7

0.61

PANSS, ill, demo, CAPE (symptomatic outcome T3)

64.4 (1.9)

76.0/50.0

72.2/54.8

0.63

63.8

62.9/64.7

75.8/48.5

0.65

PANSS, ill, demo, CANSAS (symptomatic outcome T6)

64.7 (2.0)

78.7/46.5

69.0/59.0

0.63

62.5

68.5/56.5

74.3/49.3

0.62

PANSS, ill, demo, CAPE (symptomatic outcome T6)

62.3 (1.8)

75.4/46.5

66.2/57.6

0.61

59.9

64.2/55.6

69.3/49.1

0.62

PANSS, ill, demo, CANSAS (global outcome T3)

63.5 (1.9)

66.3/59.7

65.6/60.5

0.63

63.5

66.1/60.8

68.5/59.6

0.62

PANSS, ill, demo, CAPE (global outcome T3)

67.6 (1.3)

74.9/58.4

70.1/64.2

0.67

64.8

65.8/63.8

72.7/56.5

0.58

PANSS, ill, demo, CANSAS (global outcome T6)

67.6 (2.2)

81.8/47.7

71.8/61.6

0.65

64.0

71.8/56.1

73.2/55.3

0.64

PANSS, ill, demo, CAPE (global outcome T6)

67.3 (1.7)

84.3/43.3

73.4/59.8

0.64

61.2

65.9/56.5

76.8/45.5

0.64

 

External BAC

External Sens/Spec

External PPV/NPV

External AUC

    

EUFEST 4 weeks (symptomatic outcome T3)

62.7

61.3/64.0

69.0/45.1

0.62

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 52 weeks (symptomatic outcome T3)

59.0

60.9/57.1

70.5/47.4

0.60

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 4 weeks (symptomatic outcome remission T6)

62.4

58.1/66.7

72.0/50.9

0.62

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 52 weeks (symptomatic outcome T6)

61.0

60.2/61.8

69.8/50.0

0.60

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 4 weeks (global outcome T3)

60.4

61.7/59.1

64.5/57.9

0.61

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 52 weeks (global outcome T3)

56.5

58.5/54.6

60.3/53.4

0.57

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 4 weeks (global outcome T6)

62.0

61.4/62.7

73.2/50.3

0.62

–

–

–

–

EUFEST 52 weeks (global outcome T6)

66.4

70.0/62.8

76.1/57.1

0.67

–

–

–

–

  1. BAC (mean (SD)) is balanced accuracy (i.e. the average of sensitivity and specificity), sens is sensitivity, spec is specificity, PPV is positive predictive value, NPV is negative predictive value, AUC is area under the curve, T3 is follow-up at 3-years interval after the baseline, T6 is follow-up at 6-years interval after the baseline, PANSS Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, ill illness related, demo demographic, CANSAS Camberwell assessment of need short appraisal, CAPE Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences, EUFEST 4 weeks is set of 10% best performing features of 4-week outcome prediction of the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial, EUFEST 52 weeks is set of 10% best performing features of 52-week outcome prediction of the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial.
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