Fig. 1: Expression of sensory (low-level) and volatility (high-level) precision-weighted prediction errors (pwPEs) in the control group.

A Maximum intensity projections of the significant clusters over left to right and anterior to posterior scalp locations (left) of the F-statistic for low-level pwPEs (ε₂). Significant cluster-level effects (p < 0.05, whole-volume family wise error (FWE) corrected at the cluster level with a cluster-defining threshold of p < 0.001) are shown using a jet colour-map and significant peak-level effects (p < 0.05, whole-volume FWE-corrected at the peak level) are marked by black contours. Coloured area highlights f-values that exceed the cluster-defining threshold of p < 0.001, uncorrected. Time windows of the significant effects (earliest to latest significant timepoints) are shown by yellow bars on the right of the F-map. The scalp maps (right) show the peak effect (global maximum) of the given cluster with an F-map at the indicated peristimulus time, across a 2D representation of the sensor layout. Note that the global peak effect is not always expressed at a specific channel location. Significant correlations with the low-level pwPE ε₂ peaked at 106 ms in temporal central channels (sensor C3), at 284 ms in central channels (sensor Cz) and at 378 ms in frontal central channels. B Event-related potential waveforms averaged across the 15% highest and the 15% lowest pwPE values at electrodes within significant clusters. C, D Significant correlations with the high-level pwPEs ε₃ peaked at 160 ms in frontal channels (sensor F3) and at 256 ms in central channels (sensor Cz).