Table 5 Parsimonious multivariable model for risk of transition to psychosis according to the cohort studies within the IPD dataset (adjusted for shrinkage).

From: Clinical prediction model for transition to psychosis in individuals meeting At Risk Mental State criteria

Variable

Odds Ratio

(95% CI)

Intercept, log odds ratio (standard error)

−3.84 (0.77)

Combined score: Disorganised thought content (linear)

1.33 (1.18, 1.48)

Combined score: Disorganised speech (linear)

1.28 (1.17, 1.41)

Global Functioning Scale (linear)

0.98 (0.96, 0.99)

Trait Vulnerability

No

1.00

Yes

1.51 (0.99, 2.30)

Treatment

No

1.00

Yes

1.63 (0.58, 4.56)

Not known

1.45 (0.49, 4.28)

  1. The intercept, shown in italics, is a log odds ratio rather than an odds ratio.
  2. Odds ratio > 1 implies risk of transition to psychosis is greater in this group than in the baseline group
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