Fig. 3: Low probability of moderate to severe reaction in investigation scenarios, no change compared to the reference scenario. | npj Vaccines

Fig. 3: Low probability of moderate to severe reaction in investigation scenarios, no change compared to the reference scenario.

From: Applying causal inference and Bayesian statistics to understanding vaccine safety signals using a simulation study

Fig. 3

Signals are flagged when the number of MAs exceeds the 99th percentile (dotted lines) upon 5000 simulations with 4000 individuals simulated for each simulation per scenario. The proportion of simulations which generated a signal within each scenario is represented as percentages within each panel in this figure. The probability of survey participation (η) was varied from Low P (Scenarios 1, 4) to Medium P (Scenarios 2, 5) and High P (Scenarios 3, 6). The influence of reaction (τsp and τma) on both survey participation and MA respectively was varied between Weak for Scenarios 1–3 and Strong for Scenarios 4–6. The exact parameters altered for each scenario are as specified in Table 2, all other parameters used are as specified in Table 1.

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