Fig. 5: Illustrative outputs of the PPA method from a single simulation.

The number of observed MAs, reported in red and the signal threshold reported in blue, are also indicated by the solid red lines and dotted blue lines, respectively. The percentile of the posterior predicted distribution is used here as an indication of the distance of the number of reported MAs from the signal threshold. As the figure illustrates the outputs of just one simulation, the proportion of simulations with an alerted signal is 0.0 in (a) and 1.0 in (b).