Table 1 Simplified DAG variables and data simulation parameters
Variable | Definition | States |
Age | Age of vaccine recipient monitored for safety by an active surveillance system | <50 y, ≥ 50 y |
Vaccine | Vaccine received at 3 days before the survey distribution | Yes |
Reaction | The level of reaction within 3 days following the vaccination. This is often not directly observed and thus different from reported AEFI | None to mild (0), moderate to severe (1) |
Survey participation | The recipient participated in the survey sent at day 3 following their vaccination at an AusVaxSafety site | No (0), yes (1) |
MA | The recipient experienced a reaction within 3 days of vaccination and sought medical attention either via a general practitioner (GP) or hospital emergency department (ED) | No (0), yes (1) |
Report MA | The recipient reported MA (GP and/or ED) via AEFI survey | No (0), yes (1) |
Parameter | Definition | Value |
θ | Probability of moderate to severe reaction in the <50 y age group | 0.3 |
ϵ | Multiplicative change of probability of moderate to severe reaction in the ≥50 y age group | \(\frac{2}{3}\) |
η | Probability of survey participation in the <50 y age group with a mild reaction | 0.1 |
τsp | Multiplicative change of survey participation due to a moderate to severe reaction independent of age group | 1.5 |
µsp | Multiplicative change of survey participation in the ≥50 y age group independent of moderate to severe reaction | 1.35 |
ϕ | Probability of MA in the <50 y age group with a mild reaction | 0.01 |
τma | Multiplicative change in MA probability due to a moderate to severe reaction independent of age group | 3 |
µma | Multiplicative change in MA probability in the ≥50 y age group independent of severity of reaction | 5 |
