Extended Data Fig. 4: The CMIP6 models can have large biases in their mean state of precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration in the Southwest.
From: Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest
The distribution of July–August-September (a) average precipitation, (b) surface soil moisture, and (c) evapotranspiration from the 28 CMIP6 models used for Fig. 5 (blue histograms) and ERA5 (red vertical line). The CMIP6 estimates are based on 1979–2014, and the ERA5 estimates are based on 1979–2019; the end date in CMIP6 is the end of the historical scenario simulations. The 95% range shown for ERA5 is calculated by performing a bootstrap of the seasonal mean values with replacement, and provides an estimate of the uncertainty of the mean value due to sampling of internal variability. Surface soil moisture in the CMIP6 models is calculated over the top 10cm, whereas the top soil layer in ERA5 is 7cm; as such, the ERA5 surface soil moisture is multiplied by 10/7 for this comparison.
