Fig. 1: GWLs triggering a 100-fold increase in the 100-year ESL frequency.

a–f, GWLs reached by 2100 (distinguished by colour) causing the present-day 100-yr ESL event to become at least an annual event for 179 tide-gauge locations at which estimates are available from all three studies (a, c and e) and for 7,283 locations at which ESL estimates are available from the two model-based studies (b, d and f)). a, Central estimates for 179 tide-gauge locations for which all six alternative projections are available. b, Central estimate for 7,283 locations for which four alternative projections are available. c, Upper bound for the 179 locations. d, Upper bound for the 7,283 locations. e, Lower bound for the 179 locations. f, Lower bound for the 7,283 locations. Central estimates, lower and upper bound, as defined in the Methods, are shown from top to bottom respectively. The + sign associated with 2 and 5 °C indicates projections that include SEJ-derived estimates of ice-sheet contribution to RSLC.