Extended Data Fig. 3: Histograms of the distribution of the number of sites at which a 100-fold increase in the frequency of the present-day 100-yr ESL event occurs for each warming level.

Results are shown for two alternative synthesis methods, the voting system (left column) and the full convolution (right column). The histograms along each column are organized in pairs, with the first pair showing the central estimate ((a)-(d)) the second pair showing the lower bound ((e)-(h)) and the third and last pair showing the upper bound ((i)-(l)). For each pair, the upper histogram shows the results for the smaller set of 179 sites, the lower histogram shows the results for the larger set of 7,283 sites.