Table 2 Timing of frequency changes in ESLs

		2020	2030	2040	2050	2060	2070	2080	2090	2100	No change
	Lower	0.20	0.40	0.60	0.74	0.81	0.86	0.90	0.93	0.96	0.04
1.5 °C	Central	0.01	0.10	0.19	0.26	0.35	0.46	0.55	0.62	0.66	0.34
	Upper	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.11	0.13	0.15	0.16	0.84
	Lower	0.25	0.57	0.70	0.80	0.88	0.92	0.96	0.97	0.99	0.01
2.0 °C	Central	0.01	0.10	0.19	0.27	0.38	0.52	0.62	0.69	0.75	0.25
	Upper	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.07	0.09	0.12	0.14	0.17	0.19	0.81
	Lower	0.41	0.65	0.78	0.88	0.92	0.95	0.98	0.99	1.00	0.00
2.0 °C+	Central	0.02	0.12	0.21	0.30	0.42	0.58	0.67	0.74	0.80	0.20
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.07	0.10	0.13	0.16	0.19	0.22	0.78
	Lower	0.41	0.65	0.79	0.88	0.92	0.95	0.98	0.99	1.00	0.00
2.5 °C	Central	0.02	0.13	0.21	0.30	0.44	0.61	0.70	0.78	0.83	0.17
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.04	0.07	0.10	0.14	0.18	0.21	0.24	0.76
	Lower	0.41	0.65	0.79	0.88	0.92	0.96	0.98	0.99	1.00	0.00
3.0 °C	Central	0.02	0.13	0.22	0.31	0.47	0.63	0.73	0.80	0.86	0.14
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.08	0.11	0.14	0.18	0.21	0.25	0.75
	Lower	0.41	0.66	0.79	0.88	0.92	0.96	0.99	1.00	1.00	0.00
4.0 °C	Central	0.02	0.13	0.22	0.33	0.54	0.70	0.81	0.87	0.92	0.08
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.09	0.13	0.18	0.22	0.26	0.31	0.69
	Lower	0.41	0.66	0.79	0.88	0.94	0.98	0.99	1.00	1.00	0.00
5.0 °C	Central	0.02	0.13	0.23	0.40	0.63	0.76	0.85	0.91	0.95	0.05
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.09	0.15	0.21	0.29	0.39	0.47	0.53
	Lower	0.41	0.67	0.83	0.92	0.97	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.00
5.0 °C+	Central	0.02	0.14	0.25	0.44	0.67	0.80	0.87	0.92	0.96	0.04
	Upper	0.00	0.01	0.05	0.10	0.17	0.25	0.34	0.44	0.54	0.46

Cumulative fractions of 7,283 sites shown in Supplementary Figs. 12–19 that experience the 100-fold change in ESL frequency in each decade under each of the GWLs. We underline the first fraction to become larger than 0.5 to highlight the decade by which more than half the sites considered experience such change. The last column highlights the fraction of the sites that do not experience the 100-fold change by 2100 for that GWL.

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