Fig. 1: Arctic coastal erosion projections.
From: Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century
a, Time evolution of the Arctic-mean coastal erosion rate, expressed as the combined effect of its thermal and mechanical drivers. b, Yearly probabilities that the Arctic-mean coastal erosion rate leaves the historical range of variability, calculated from distributions of ensemble spread and erosion model uncertainties (see Methods). In all scenarios, it is very likely ( >90% probability) that the Arctic-mean erosion emerges from its historical range by mid-twenty-first century, although the exact time of emergence is sensitive to our erosion model uncertainties. c,d, The thermal (c) and mechanical (d) drivers of erosion, expressed as yearly-accumulated daily positive degrees and significant wave heights, respectively. The erosion time series depict long-term means and therefore show little interannual variability in comparison with its drivers. Dashed horizontal grey lines in c and d mark the upper bound of the historical range of variability for the erosion drivers, defined as 2σ from the ensemble mean.
