Fig. 2: Observed and modelled erosion rate spatial variability.
From: Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century
a–c, Observed long-term coastal erosion mean rates from the ACD database33 (a), modelled against observed erosion rates in non-extreme (b) and extreme (c) erosion segments (each dot in b and c is a coastal segment from a). Observed values denoted by coloured circles on the map in a and on the scatterplots in b and c depict only segments used to train the model (see Methods). Uncertainties represent 2σ confidence intervals from the distribution of regression coefficients. d, Modelled historical-mean (1850–1900) and end-of-the-century (2081–2100) erosion rates in the future scenarios. Here all segments are shown, including those that were not used to train the erosion model, but are included in our pan-Arctic projections (see Supplementary Fig. 3). e, Historical and projected erosion time means from the maps in d. Maps made with Natural Earth and Cartopy63.
