Fig. 4: Sensitivity to climate change.
From: Increase in Arctic coastal erosion and its sensitivity to warming in the twenty-first century
a, Temporal evolution of trends in global and Arctic mean SATs. b, Correlations between Arctic-mean erosion rates and Arctic mean SATs. c, The AA factor, expressed as regression coefficients of Arctic SAT changes on global SAT. The AA onset is defined as the point when the AA factor is larger than 1. d,e, Sensitivity of thermal \(\overline{T}\) (d) and mechanical \(\overline{H}\) (e) drivers of coastal erosion to climate, expressed as regression coefficients on global SAT. f, Yearly scatterplot between the thermal and mechanical drivers of coastal erosion, normalized by their historical mean values. Running-window lengths are 20 yr in all plots, except in f, which has yearly resolution and no filtering. Different window lengths show qualitatively similar results (not shown). The AA onset (dashed pink line) takes place in 1976, when the Arctic SAT increases at a faster pace than the global mean SAT, that is, the AA factor is larger than 1. After the 1970s, the AA factor is consistently significantly larger than 1, except for late twenty-first century in the SSP2-4.5 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, when global and Arctic mean SATs decelerated and 20 yr trends are momentarily similar.
