Fig. 1: An inter-model consensus on increased ENSO SST variability.
From: Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
a,b, ENSO Niño3.4 SST standard deviation (in oC) over the 20th century (1900–1999, green bars) and the 21st century (2000–2099, purple bars) from 43 available CMIP6 models under the SSP585 scenario (a), and from 39 CMIP6 models under the SSP126 scenario (b), with 88.4% and 87.2% of models respectively showing an increase in ENSO variability. The grey shading indicates models which do not simulate an increase. Also shown is the multi-model ensemble mean for each period. The error bars in the multi-model mean bars are defined as the value of the standard deviation of inter-model variability in the 20th and 21st centuries, determined by a Bootstrap test (see ‘Bootstrap test’ in Methods). The difference in the multi-model mean is statistically significant above the 95% confidence level.
