Extended Data Fig. 1: Illustration of statistical significance of multi-model ensemble mean change.
From: Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
Uncertainty in the multimodel mean is calculated as 1.0 s.d. of the 10,000 inter-realizations of a bootstrap method (see ‘Bootstrap test’ section in Methods), for a the SSP585, and b the SSP126 emission scenario. The green and purple vertical lines indicate the mean values of 10,000 inter-realizations for the 20th and 21st century, respectively, identical to the multi-model ensemble means shown Fig. 1. The grey shaded regions indicate the respective 1.0 s.d. of the 10,000 inter-realization.
