Extended Data Fig. 2: An inter-model consensus on increased ENSO SST variability.
From: Increased ENSO sea surface temperature variability under four IPCC emission scenarios
The same as in Fig. 1, except in each model the ENSO SST index is normalized by the standard deviation (s.d.) over the whole 200 years. ENSO Niño3.4 SST variability (s.d.) over the 20th century (1900–1999, green bars) and the 21st century (2000–2099, purple bars), from a 43 available CMIP6 models under the SSP585 scenario, and b 39 CMIP6 models under the SSP126 scenario, with an 88.4% and 87.2% of models showing an increase in ENSO variability. The grey shading indicates models which do not simulate an increase. Also shown is the multi-model ensemble mean for each period. The range in the multi-model mean bars is defined as the value of standard deviation of inter-model variability in the 20th and 20st century, respectively, determined by a Bootstrap test (see ‘Bootstrap test’ in Methods). The difference in the multi-model mean is statistically significant above the 95% confidence level.
