Fig. 4: The relationship between MAP and changes of vegetation resilience.

a, VOD AR(1) time series for 500 mm MAP bands from 1996 (including data going back to 1991; dashed lines) and from 2003 (including data going back to 1998; solid lines). The P values of the trend significance test (Methods) are given in the legend; from 2003 onwards, they are all >0.001. b, VOD AR(1) Kendall τ series for a sliding MAP band with a width of 500 mm, from 1996 (grey) and from 2003 (black). Circles are coloured according to the corresponding time series shown in a and filled if the Kendall τ value is significantly positive (P < 0.05) and open otherwise. The tendencies of the relationships in b are τ = −0.403 (grey) and τ = −0.463 (black), confirming there is a more severe decrease in resilience with lower rainfall values. See Supplementary Fig. 15 for an uncertainty quantification of the results shown in b. The number of grid cells used to calculate the AR(1) time series and thus the Kendall τ values are shown in red in b. This never falls below 100 grid cells and so we can be confident in the mean estimation of the AR(1) time series. The number of grid cells used in the calculation of the time series in a is shown in brackets in the legend. Note that the AR(1) values are plotted at the end of each 5-yr sliding window.