Extended Data Fig. 3: Adaptive CO₂-fe emissions and resulting temperature anomaly for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C target for different non-CO₂ GHG emissions and aerosol radiative forcing.

(a, c, e, g) Temperature anomalies with respect to 1850-1900 and (b, d, f, h) corresponding CO₂-fe emissions if the AERA is applied every five years starting in the year 2025 for the 1.5 °C target (blue) and the 2.0 °C target (orange) for four different idealized cases: (a, b) aerosol radiative forcing decreases exponentially and CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions evolve proportionally, (c, d) aerosol radiative forcing decreases according to the CO₂ emissions and CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions evolve proportionally, (e, f) aerosol radiative forcing decreases exponentially but CH₄, and N₂O emissions follow prescribed trajectories from SSP1-2.6 after 2025 and only CO₂ evolves dynamically, and (g, h) aerosol radiative forcing remains constant after 2025 and CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions evolve proportionally. CO₂ emission curves shown here do not include emissions from prescribed land-use change. The thick solid lines show the average of the 8 simulations with varying magnitude and timing of added inter-annual temperature variability of the Bern3D-LPX model configuration with an ECS of 3.2 °C and the shaded area shows the range of all configurations that fall within the likely range of ECS as defined by Sherwood et al.²⁴. The grey shading in (a, c, e, g) indicates the uncertainty with which the anthropogenic warming can be determined (±0.2 °C)^26,27,28,29. The corresponding CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions and aerosol forcing for each simulated case are shown in Fig. 3.