Extended Data Fig. 5: Globally averaged surface atmospheric temperature anomaly with respect to 1850-1900, CO₂-e emissions, their annual rate of change, as well as CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O emissions following the adaptive emission reduction approach using GWP-100 instead of CO₂-fe to split CO₂-e emissions.

(a) Temperature anomalies with respect to 1850-1900, (b) CO₂-e emissions, and (c) their annual rate of change if the AERA is applied every five years starting in the year 2025 for the 1.5 °C target (blue) and the 2.0 °C target (orange). In addition, the AERA-calculated emission curves for (d) CO₂, (e) CH₄, and (f) N₂O are shown. CO₂ emission curves shown here do not include emissions from prescribed land-use change. As compared to Fig. 2 in the main text, here the GWP-100 approach was used to calculate CO₂ equivalent emissions from CH₄ and N₂O emissions and the CO₂-fe emissions approach was applied to calculate CO₂ equivalent emissions from the remaining forcing agents. The thick solid lines show the average of the 8 simulations with varying magnitude and timing of added inter-annual temperature variability of the Bern3D-LPX model configuration with an ECS of 3.2 °C, the thin solid lines show the same for the remaining 8 configurations covering ECS from 1.9 to 5.7 °C, and the shaded area shows the range of all configurations that fall within the likely range of ECS as defined by Sherwood et al.²⁴. The grey shading in (a) indicates the uncertainty with which the anthropogenic warming can be determined (±0.2 °C)^26,27,28,29.