Extended Data Fig. 1: Global mean surface air temperature responses to greenhouse gas emissions from future food consumption based on five population projections for RCP4.5 emissions inputs for all other sectors and forcers.

Temperature responses expressed in degrees Celsius. Greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide) from food consumption are calculated using the database developed herein and the population projections developed for the following Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as outlined in Riahi et al.⁵⁷: Regional Rivalry, Inequality, Middle of the Road, Fossil-Fueled Development, and Sustainability (corresponding to SSP3, SSP4, SSP2, SSP5, and SSP1, respectively). The future warming associated with consumption from a constant 2020 global population is also provided for reference. RCP4.5 emissions were input for all sectors other than agriculture and all forcers other than carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in order to develop all-forcing baseline simulations from which the isolated food consumption temperature responses were derived. See Fig. 1 for results using RCP8.5 emissions. Shading represents 95% confidence intervals based on 190 ensemble members and lines represent the mean of these ensemble members. Inequality (SSP4) scenario identified by dotted line in order to better visualize overlapping scenarios.