Extended Data Fig. 7: CO₂-induced changes in the AMOC and the integrated surface energy flux asymmetry.

(a) Changes (relative to preindustrial times) in AMOC strength (multimodel mean, black; intermodel spread, one standard derivation among models, grey) in the CO₂ quadrupling simulation by LongRunMIP models except ECHAM5-MPIOM. The AMOC strength is defined as the maximum in the meridional overturning stream function below 500 m in the North Atlantic. The first 20-year average of AMOC strength is plotted at year 10 in the form of multimodel mean (MMM, dot) ± one standard deviation (1 SD) among models (bars). (b) Same as (a) but for surface energy fluxes integrated over 30°N–65°N (multimodel mean, red; intermodel spread, light red), over the Pacific and land areas (multimodel mean, orange; intermodel spread, yellow) and the Atlantic area (multimodel mean, green; intermodel spread, light green) within 30°N–65°N. Note that the first 20-year average of surface energy fluxes integrated over the Pacific and land areas with 30°N–65°N is plotted at year 9 for a clear visualization. (c) Same as (a) but for changes in surface energy fluxes integrated over 30°N–65°N (multimodel mean, red; intermodel spread, one standard derivation among models, light red), 30°S–65°S (multimodel mean, blue; intermodel spread, light blue) and the difference (30°S–65°S minus 30°N–65°N, multimodel mean, black; intermodel spread, grey).